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Long Term Stock Returns Depends On When You Start 27 Aug 2013 | 10:55 am
When considering the impact of 15-18 year secular market cycles, as shown in the chart below, it really becomes much more important in determining the "WHEN" to invest as much as "WHAT" to invest in.
What Trade Hurts the Most? 27 Aug 2013 | 10:24 am
An off-shoot of What If? is to ask “What trade hurts the most people,” especially when the market seemed like a one-way street. The idea is not that what seems highly unlikely is necessarily going to ...
When Non-banking Experts Become Overnight Banking Experts 27 Aug 2013 | 12:50 am
In my previous post I mentioned how important I thought the banking debate between Paul Krugman and I was. I also mentioned how most economists downplay banking debates because it puts a wrinkle in t...
Three Things I Think I Think 26 Aug 2013 | 10:34 pm
1) Boy, that was an ugly durable goods figure this morning. We’ve seen one month numbers like that recently so this is nothing to get too worked up over, but let’s hope this doesn’t become a trend. ...
Is the Treasury Sell-off Overdone? 26 Aug 2013 | 08:28 pm
Are investors overreacting to the taper and the potential performance of government bond?
Is it Possible to Eliminate the Business Cycle? 26 Aug 2013 | 09:49 am
Todd Harrison over at Minyanville had some good thoughts last week about the business cycle and the Fed’s attempt to snuff it out: “I, too, remember when the business cycle was a healthy and natural c...
What is Shadow Banking? 26 Aug 2013 | 09:05 am
There is much confusion about what shadow banking is and why it might create systemic risks. This column presents shadow banking as ‘all financial activities, except traditional banking, which require...
Banks are Special: the Ins & Outs of Money 25 Aug 2013 | 12:17 pm
I was going to drop the back and forth with Paul Krugman, but then he dangled this delicious treat in front of me and like any good little puppy I just had to jump up and bite at it. So, here I go ba...
Germany: Bitcoin is Money…. 23 Aug 2013 | 09:52 am
Well this is certainly an interesting development in monetary theory circles. The German government has apparently recognized Bitcoin as a “unit of account”. And according to CNBC the online money c...
The Long View on Stocks 23 Aug 2013 | 09:05 am
Here’s an interesting chart and some stats frmo Merrill Lynch on long run stock market performance. Now, if we could only solve that whole, not being alive for 189 years, problem….. In the long-run s...
