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Status Report on US Economy: Where We Are, Where We’re Going 27 Aug 2013 | 08:10 pm
After a near-recessionary 4th quarter (and the start of the extraordinary QE3), the US economy slowly accelerated during the first two quarters of 2013. Much depends on that growth continuing. With mo...
Imminent Syria Strike and Rout in Emerging Markets Underpins Dollar, Yen, Swiss Franc 27 Aug 2013 | 08:07 pm
The US dollar is well bid against most of the major and emerging market currencies, driven by a general risk averse attitude, sparked in part by a growing sense that a strike on Syria is imminent, whi...
Will Fear Beget More Fear? 26 Aug 2013 | 06:51 pm
Last week I predicted that the major theme for the week would focus on whether rising interest rates would kill the stock market rally. That was reasonably accurate, since the interest rate story was ...
The Geography of Success 26 Aug 2013 | 06:48 pm
Weak U.S. economic growth continues to be discouraging. But it’s worth taking a look at a few places where things going well for America. There has been a remarkable resurgence in U.S. oil production ...
Q3 2013 US GDP Nowcast 26 Aug 2013 | 06:46 pm
US GDP is expected to rise 1.7% (real seasonally adjusted annual rate) in this year’s third quarter, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric nowcast. Today’s update is slightly lower ...
Is China’s Economy Crashing? 26 Aug 2013 | 06:44 pm
Bearishness on China has gone viral. Two years ago talk was of China’s economy saving the world. Today observers have swung to the opposite extreme, one expressed elegantly by Paul Krugman as “the Chi...
Trimmings for Labor Day 26 Aug 2013 | 06:42 pm
The good news this Labor Day: Jobs are returning. The bad news this Labor Day: Most of them pay lousy wages and low if non-existent benefits. The trend toward lousy wages began before the Great Recess...
MacroWatcher: Weekly Analysis 25 Aug 2013 | 08:58 pm
August is one of the most popular vacation periods, but few expected the Nasdaq to take a three hour holiday on Thursday. The shutdown was blamed on a technical glitch, and the blame lies squarely wit...
What Do You Want in a New Fed Chair? Hint: Larry Summers Doesn’t Have It 25 Aug 2013 | 04:51 am
I was recently asked by an interviewer who’s going to replace Chairman Bernanke. I declined to predict because I don’t do horseraces. You’d have to be inside the beltway to understand which way Presid...
Does Nigeria’s Huge FDI Benefit Nigerians? 23 Aug 2013 | 07:34 pm
With its natural resources, size and growth, Nigeria is Africa’s largest recipient of foreign investment. But are the huge FDI flows benefiting ordinary Nigerians? Global FDI is no longer immune to th...
